The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don't. by Silver, Nate - 2012.

New York:: Penguin Press, 2012.. 10th Printing.. Hardbound . BINDING/CONDITION: black binding; a Very Good book, with a Very Good dust jacket; publisher's price on the jacket flap is intact.. 8vo (about 9.5 inches tall) . Notes, index. Description: Figure illustrations. Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Overconfidence is often the reason for failure If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions and the more we are willing to learn form our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight.