The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction.
by Silver, Nate
- Used
- Paperback
- first
- Condition
- See description
- ISBN 10
- 1846148162
- ISBN 13
- 9781846148163
- Seller
-
Annandale, New South Wales, Australia
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About This Item
Synopsis
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com , where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
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Details
- Bookseller
- Bookhome Sydney (AU)
- Bookseller's Inventory #
- 17348
- Title
- The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction.
- Author
- Silver, Nate
- Book Condition
- Used
- Edition
- 1st UK p/b ed.
- Binding
- Paperback
- ISBN 10
- 1846148162
- ISBN 13
- 9781846148163
- Publisher
- Allen Lane / Penguin Books
- Place of Publication
- London
- Date Published
- 2012
- Keywords
- research methods, statistics, prediction, forecasting
- Bookseller catalogs
- RESEARCH & STATISTICS;
Terms of Sale
Bookhome Sydney
Parcels posted within Australia by Australia Post. Overseas parcels from Australia posted by Air Mail with full tracking (about 10 to 30 days delivery, but delays in post possible). Expertly wrapped. Genuine guarantee. We request extra postage for heavy books.
About the Seller
Bookhome Sydney
About Bookhome Sydney
Glossary
Some terminology that may be used in this description includes:
- Octavo
- Another of the terms referring to page or book size, octavo refers to a standard printer's sheet folded four times, producing...